A Dissertation On Probability

Risk and uncertainty are two of the most common terms used in probabilistic science often used synonymously. But on closer inspection a distinct difference can be observed between the two seemingly interchangeable terms.

Risk is when you know what the odds are in your favor or against you. Suppose you have a 60% chance of getting at home on time. This means there is a 40% risk of you getting late. So basically you know what you are dealing with rather than firing in dark.

Uncertainty is the sinister cousin of risk. You don’t know what you are against. When you say “It might rain today” you are spelling out your uncertainty or rather your ignorance regarding an event which may or may not be under control.

So, what would you rather do? Risk a job or be uncertain about it? Nature loves anarchy or randomness. Which means it is in favor of uncertainty rather than risk because it would make things predictable and nature is anything but predictable.

Humans on the other hand would rather risk things than be uncertain about them. Partly due to the thrill associated with risks and partly due to the urge to be in control which is more likely in case of risk even if the odds are heavily stacked against you. Even a terminal patient would like to know his survival odds even if they are 2%.

Of course, its not that you would be asked at each junction in your life whether you would like to go ahead with the current course of life or alter it in some way. But all the same the impression of being in control is sometimes as important as the actual authority we exert. Its just that you can’t have a 50% alive and 50% dead Schrödinger’s cat. Your cat is either alive or dead.

My two cents on austerity

The recent euphoria over conserved lifestyle piqued my interest and goaded me to add my pennies on the austerity drive. Suddenly, people travelling by Business class shift to economy, economy to AC train, AC train to sleeper, sleeper to bus (and may be bus to walking barefoot as Shri devi did few days back).

Being Austere is like being hip or being in vogue. So don’t be surprised if you find Samosa’s and Pani Puri’s being offered at page three parties or to foreign delegates. A young congress MP was embarrassed while travelling in Business Class when he learned that Sonia Gandhi was travelling in economy class. In the end poor chap had to exchange his seat for a more Austere economy class seat alongside madam making him double guilty of buying a costlier ticket and travelling on a cheaper one.(I wonder that amounts to cheating and wastage of money. Anyways who cares.).

Another milestone yesterday was Rahul Gandhi travelling by Shatabdi express in another austerity drive. (Ignoring the fact that he had to reserve five seats including security). I wonder how does travelling in AC car in one of the better trains in India amounts to austerity when it’s a luxury to most of India.

Little commonsense tells you what must have happened. Party workers must have hoarded each station shouting “Rahul Gandhi ki Jai”, “Sonia Gandhi Zindabad” showering flowers on his coach supposedly to show their loyalty, causing inconvenience to hundreds of other passengers and wasting everyone’s time including there’s. It must have created considerable litter on our already gleaming railway stations. News is that somebody pelted the same coaches damaging the train. Security personnel’s must have been scanning complete railway tracks from Delhi to Ludhiana. What was the objective of this total exercise? Wouldn’t it be cheaper if he simply booked three airline tickets in economy class without creating a fuss?

Mind you I don’t blame Rahul Gandhi for this. I know his intentions were good but the execution was crap. If he was sincere in his efforts of cost cutting he should have kept the journey under wraps and probably announced it after it was over. This was more of a publicity stunt than austerity effort. If it is some plan of government to increase money circulation in economy and employment generation then its fine otherwise the medicine is proving costlier than the disease.

Why not keep all of the MP’s in a single five star hotel and keep an army to guard all of them rather than wasting resources on each of them. When Lalu was railway minister he had 100+ policemen guarding his Delhi residence that too in one of the safest areas of Delhi. Even if you pay 10000 to each of them (minimum) your security bill itself turns out to be 10 lacs per month. I am sure it must be many times more than that. If this is for one ministry I shudder to think about all of them together. And they say India is poor.

When Shashi Tharoor is paying his five star bills from his pocket (which he is completely capable of) why should anyone have a problem? I don’t think there must be a huge difference between a monthly five star bills and total cost of keeping a MP in huge bungalows considering the cost of security, caretakers involved. Rather than being superficially austere MP’s should consider being practically economical. This is all we are asking.

The guy who never quit.

It took the genius of Nadal to realize what Roger Federer is made of.

Before I go any deeper I will make it clear that I am a die hard Nadal fan and will always continue to be so, but that has never interfered with my admiration of Federer. The Rafa-Fedex rivalry has been inarguably the greatest sporting rivalry of this century and arguably the best of all times in any sport. It would have been so easy for tennis to be transformed to golf or Moto GP where unless you are a diehard fan, Tiger and Rossi are only two names you will ever know in your lifetime.

Monopoly in any field will always lead to overall deterioration of the system. See the condition of table tennis right now where you see the Chinese organizing the tournaments and winning them all by themselves. You always need someone snapping at your heels to strive for that extra to keep your neck out of water.

The story of Federer has the most clichéd theme in the world of going from rags to riches and coming back to ground zero. This is what Michael Jackson, Mohammed Ali, Britney Spears experience. And this is what makes it the most endearing one. The rise, fall and rise of Federer sends out a bigger message than the loss of maybe a million dollars in advertisement revenues.

Why did the god of tennis suddenly seem vulnerable? Nadal got better or Federer got worse? I suppose it’s a mixture of both but bigger lesson is to see Federer fighting when things are not going his way. When you are on a roll, the whole universe conspires to make you succeed but test of character lies when things aren’t going your way. When quitting seems so easy an option. He doesn’t need to prove anything to anyone. If he hangs up boot today he will still be regarded as best in world but that is where the fun will end.

He is fighting a bigger war with himself than with Nadal. Nadal is just a face to his inner fears and insecurities. Nothing can be more intimidating than seeing your nemesis making mockery of what you thought to be your personal playhouse. But at the same time Federer’s strength is mental rather than physical. He was never a muscle player and never will be. The day he wins in his mind he will start winning on any court in the world.

I wonder if everyone would have been as excited as they are today, if he would have continued winning the French open on the trot after other three slams. I guess not. This struggle has made him more humble and probably far tougher. He seems more human now rather than two years back. And this is what makes it more special. Fighting out of his comfort zone.

He won today. Probably he won’t win any grand slam ever after this or he may continue winning as he was two years back The Federer we see today is someone we can relate to. We all are fighting a bigger battle with the Nadal in our head than in front of us. Possibly he will defeat Nadal himself next time but that shouldn’t take away anything from what he has achieved today. Kudos for the man who never quit!!!

My two cents on life -II

There is no undo button:  Think before you do anything. All the kings’ horses and all the kings’ men couldn’t put humpty together again. As already said life is unfair, don’t make it harder for yourself. There are so many ways mess up a thing but so few to do it correctly.

 

Remember the priorities: When you grow up no one is going to remember what your undergraduate percentage was, what was you GRE or CAT score whether you were first class throughout you academic career. But what they will remember will be how nice you were to them, how you made them feel comfortable, how you made them feel special. That is what you want to be remembered for.

 

Be distinct: You don’t want to be known as one of them. NO one likes run of the mill stuff. Try to be different in better way. Don’t follow just because tide is going that way. Go because you wanted to go that way.

 

 Don’t be distinct for the sake of being distinct: There is no point in being distinct just for the sake of it. Don’t make it a formality. If everyone was different everyone would be the same. You don’t have to make it hard for yourself at every point in life. Pick out your spots.

 

You can’t be good at everything:  Its bit harsh but true all the same. You were not designed to be good at everything and no where is it written that you have to be. Decide what you are best at and then go for it. Passing marks in others shall suffice. The day you will try to be master of all you will end up being jack of some and master of none.

 

You will never know until you try:  The best way to do something is just to do it. You won’t know whether things will turn out right or wrong until you do them. Probably you will mess them up but you have the satisfaction of doing something which millions others couldn’t muster the guts to do.

 

Dream big:  Never let your dreams saturate. Dream as big as you can. They don’t cost you anything but provide amazing inspiration in whatever you aspire to do. The day you stop dreaming you have lost a big chunk of your life. Dream impossible and you attain the best thing possible.

 

(2+2) != 4: There are so many parameters to be optimized in life that most of the times supposedly obvious things wont take place and weird things will make a point to show up. You plan to do something and it will turn out 180’ out of phase. Point is not to stop trying but to be more prudent next time. They say Edison took 100 attempts to master the bulb. You easily have 99 more chances.

 

Domino effect: If you don’t know what Domino effect is click here. Apologies for my wicked sense of humor. Anyways so point is universe doesn’t work in isolation. Whichever action you take has infinite visible and invisible repercussions. But good thing is that majority of them will get damped out so all you have to bother about manageable number of outcomes.

 

Butterfly effect: It’s said that a butterfly flapping its wings in Mexico can cause a storm in Australia. I don’t know how true this is but many times it will be the unknown things which will be dictating the terms in your life. Do what is in your hand in the best possible way and have faith. It was not your fault if your daily route was converted to a one way and it caused you to be late for interview.

 

It ain’t over until you think it is over: Until you decide to give up no one can make you give up. Change is the only constant in universe. Flip flops occur continuously. Keep trying even if you feel you its useless. No effort has ever gone waste. Avenues open every moment. All you need is to keep your eyes open.

 

Have a feedback mechanism: Don’t make living a formality. Time and again stop and take a look back. Is that what you intended to do? If answer is affirmative go ahead. But if not figure out what went wrong and how that can be avoided next time around.

 

Go for change: Sticking to change made a black man born to Muslim father whose middle name and last name are similar to his countries two worst enemies the president of USA. Can your problems be more complex than that? Demand change. Don’t go along just because the problems aren’t bothering you today. It was someone else today it can be you tomorrow.

 

 

My two cents on life

(Authors disclaimer: All the below lessons can be applicable to girls as and where applicable with minor changes)

 

Twenty years of my life has taught me some things. Some of the lessons have been gentle and some of them real painful. Please note that I have been fortunate not to experience all the below mentioned tragedies if I may take the liberty to call them so, but I expect them to come knocking sooner or later. They are the gist of pure observation as well as experience as related to people around me.

 

Maintain your self individuality:  Trust me you don’t want to be known as somebody’s boyfriend neither you expect somebody to be known as your girlfriend. You want yourself to be known as what you are good or bad, ugly or attractive. The day your name is synonymous with your girlfriends or vice versa you know something is wrong. Always remember you came alone and you wont have company while going back.

 

Do it for yourself:   Don’t do it because you’re Dad, Mom, Girlfriend wants you to do it. Do it because you feel like doing it, because it will make you happy. Always remember for people you care for to be happy prerequisite is that you have to be happy. Don’t try to be a philanthropist with stone over heart tendencies. Do what you believe is right and if they love you as much as you think they will understand. Not today but someday.

 

Never compromise on self respect: If she really has anything for you in her heart she will respect you for showing backbone. Mind you, there is a marked difference between ego and self respect and everyone knows it for himself. If situation demands taking some hard decisions go ahead. You may lose small amount of time you could have spent with her but you won your self respect back.

 

You can’t please everyone:  another common human tendency. The day you try to please everyone you will end up hurting everyone. It’s futile and wastage of effort. This doesn’t warrant recklessness but it’s ok to be selfish sometimes. You possibly don’t need to be rude to others whom you cant please but there is always a nice way of doing everything. Go for it.

 

Be thankful for whatever you have:  I know this one is hard but always remember things could have been even worse. Whenever you feel awful just ask yourself would you rather trade places with a person who just discovered he had 3 months to live or had a big accident? I don’t think so. This is a wicked way but all the more a very effective way to stay happy. God didn’t take effort to create a nobody. Possibly destiny has been cruel to you, you made mistakes which could have been avoided. But there is always another day. Be thankful that you have senses to think about the past. Contemplating on past lays the foundation for a strong future.

 

You are not chasing her:  Many times you will feel her drifting away from you. Nothing might have gone wrong and it is not at all your fault. Always remember one thing you love her. You are not chasing her for fun. If distance is what she wants give her plenty of it. In fact so much that she asks you to come closer.

 

Life is never fair in small sample period:  Its part of experience. For small period life is always unfair. But if you consider a big enough time span you will get to know that things aren’t as bad as they seem now. Possibly they could have been better but things could have also been much worse. We never complain when we get lucky. You have to keep some margin for tolerance.

Never apologize with conditions applied tag:  Never add crap like sorry if you thought so or it wasnt my intention o hurt you. Its sign of ego. If you are convinced you were at fault give out an unconditional apology than adding those ifs and buts.You can explain the circumstances later on.

 

Stop blaming yourself: You are not responsible for every acne she has. Don’t have that guilty feeling every time you feel she is off. And more importantly don’t go with a band aid every time she has a cut. She is as capable as you to solve her problems the last thing you want is to be branded as pain in neck.

 

That wretched feeling:  Ok, let’s accept it most probably you aren’t her first, not even second or third choice. You have to fight for everything just to be with her. Things which require you to put in tremendous efforts might seem to be for granted for others. Always remember one thing. World is unfairly biased in favor of girls. You can’t help it. No amount of cursing yourself can correct that. You chose to love her, be prepared to pay for that.

 

Be nice to everyone:  Probably the most important thing. Remember nothing goes unnoticed. Every action is accounted for. Always be nice to everyone good-bad, beautiful ugly. You never know what will help you out later on. Solutions often come out from the most unexpected sources. Being nice doesn’t cost you anything. Your one smile may make somebody’s day. Feel free to distribute it.

 

Some people can’t think straight:  You tried everything but still some people refuse to have it straight. Continuous politics, backstabbing all these are part of life. You can’t control what others do but you can surely have control over what your reaction to that will be. If possible ignore it but if not make them pay. Never procrastinate in such situations. You would rather lose a finger now that an arm later on.

 

It’s ok to feel the blues:  Everyone has a tough phase in life. Many people like us have a tough life. You deserve to feel neglected, unwanted or wretched sometimes. But what is more important is you are always in control. Give yourself a day or two to feel sorry for you. Use all the abusive adjectives you can think of to whomsoever you think is responsible for your current situation. If you are responsible for current mess its even better. Go one step ahead for yourself. But come out of the mess after the stipulated period.

 

If you cannot be a good example you can always serve as a horrible warning:  Not everyone ends up as Steve Jobs. It’s ironic that people can extract more lessons from a failure than a success. Its ok you did stuff you shouldn’t have. Probably fell for wrong girl, smoked, had drugs etc. What’s gone by can’t be helped but what you about it in future can definitely be. Take ahead whatever you can and move on.

 

There is a fine distinction between fun and ridicule: Never cross the line. Teasing should always be such that the victim enjoys it the most. It is terrible to see that strong relations were soured due to stupid reasons. You don’t want to waste rest of life feeling stupid.

 

Always listen to your conscience: At the end of the day you are answerable to yourself not to your mom, your dad or your neighbor. Look at yourself in the mirror and ask yourself given another chance would you have done things differently. If answer is affirmative its time to be more careful next time.

 

Never pass blame: Nobody likes a loser but people hate a person who shirks away from blame. Own up you will do better next time rather than finding reasons to save your neck every time things go wrong. Things could have gone only two way either good or bad. Due to some reason they went in negative half. Put your hand up and learn the lesson.

 

Make new mistakes:  Everyone is tired of seeing same mistakes being committed again and again. If you can’t do anything right at least do an innovative wrong. You will get credit for that. You don’t learn until you make mistakes. If you are not doing anything wrong then it means you are not doing enough.

 

Never put all your eggs in the same basket: Keep your emotional support base wide enough. Never rely on same person for everything. Always keep the base broad and the top narrow in order to ensure a strong building. Try to increase the circle of confidence to a manageable level.

 

Trust yourself: It might sound like narcissism but trust no one but you. Reliance on others may carry you some distance but they are bound to dump you somewhere on the road. Be responsible for what you do and take your decisions yourself.

 

My two cents on election 09.

              The biggest problem with democracy is..................well democracy itself.                                                                                                                                  (some wise man)  

               So its all over. One of the most dramatic elections ever fought has come to an appropriately histrionic end. Some of you who didn't have anything worthwhile to do voted, most of you probably didn't. Its o.k.Perfectly understandable.Most of us make a voter card so that it can be used as identity proof when we travel. Right to lazyness is our fundamnetal right.So the point is the representative's of half of India have been elected.(The other half doesn't care).So I will assume that complete country chose it's future . Good or bad Congress has won not because it was awesome or unbeatable but due to lack of better option's. Anyway's I know it's all perspective. I was never a Congress supporter and will continue to oppose it but at the same time I am glad that India will have a stable government for next five years rather than a tottering one and priority before Manmohan Singh will be the country rather than the whim's of the left,right, up and down.

                This year we saw amazing shamelessness as far as making prepoll allie's was concerned and at one instant it seemed that Congress might declare Modi a good man and ask BJP to join UPA. The extreme lows included Lalu blaming Congress for Babri, Rahul Gandhi praising Nitish Kumar for obvious reasons, Communists declaring Congress  as friends and foes alternately as per convenience and Sharad Pawar expecting congress to support him as PM to name a few.

             First things first.This election turned out to be a nightmare for NDA.The problem is that BJP depend's upon Congress to do bad in order to win. If looked at carefully they don't seem to have a clear cut agenda.Even on the Ram Mandir issue they don't seem to make up their mind.The country has moved ahead but unfortunately BJP hasn't.The problem's before India today are far graver than they anticipate or rather chose to stress upon. I like Modi but his role in Gujrat riots is condemnable and if he and BJP are paying for that they are to blame themselves for it.Varun Gandhi commited the same mistake.Those bombshell's fetched him few claps and some night's in jail and lot of onscreen time but that cost BJP the nation.

          Happiest thing for me is left and Sharad Pawar lost their sheen.Left for obvious reasons, in fact i was surprised why didnt this happen earlier with them but still as they say better late than never. Pawar I despise despite being Marathi myself.But I would rather have a Martian for PM post than a Maharashtrian who doesn't have an iota of self respect.He can single handedly take credit for taking politics to the current low.He's sole ideology seemed to be to be a PM himself.If congress has any working brain within it it should kick out such an ally who would have been first to do the last rites if they had lost.

MNS turned out to be a big factor in Maharashtra and they hit NDA specially ShivSena very hard as expected with MNS candidates eating a Lac Marathi votes in each of the twelve constituencies.Raj would have liked to grab a seat or two but they will be happy with the bad dreams Uddhav Thakre will have for some time.They should be a force to reckon in upcoming assembly elections. Congress will enjoy MNS factor considering the 6-0 routing at Mumbai but by next general elections it should expect a few blows for itself. 

As its a winner takes it all deal Congress will be happy with its position now with UPA needing less than 15 seats to touch 273 which means no coddling for SP,CPM,BSP,Lalu and others.They seem to be desperate to bring Rahul in mainstream but he has wisely procastinated it till now but you dont need to be oracle to see that he will be nexp PM candidate for Congress.Congress has always been accused of nepotism but I dont care as long as we get an able candidate for PM who has his head in right place.Though I agree that Rahul Gandhi shouldn't become PM just because he is a Gandhi scion but the converse is also true. Just because his second name happens to be Gandhi should not come in his chances to lead the country provided he proves himself in a post of responsibility and looking at him he seems to understand that. And either way how many times do we see a complete party willingly or unwillingly coming on a consensus regarding their leader.

Old Manmohan can sleep in peace for some time now.Its been a long battle but nothing tastes as good as success. Economy is in a mess and he now has a free rein and doesnt need crutches of left,Lalu etc. If things dont turn out right this time he has no one else to blame but so far so good.